Well.

You had to admit, it was exciting.  Bottom of the ninth, two outs and two strikes on the LAST-PLACE Orioles’ Chris Davis and one of the best closers in the game on the mound for the Sox.  Tampa Bay was losing 7-0 in the 8th inning.  Finally the world order was righting itself after a month of desolation.  

I’ve been watching baseball since my first Washington Senators game in 1970.  Became a true Sox fan after first seeing the green of The Fens in that cruel year 1978.  But this past month of following the Sox, culminating in those 30 minutes last night, well, I will now forever be reminded that anything, just anything can happen in this game.  After having been in 1st place on September 1st and a 9 game lead to make the playoffs, the Sox will be playing golf this October.

The calculus was stunning.  As Nate Silver, the political statistician, points out, the odds of this happening were stupendous, or just stupid, at 278,000,000-1.  On September 3rd the Sox had a 99.7% probability of making the playoffs.  Papelbon facing Chris Davis (of the LAST PLACE Orioles) with two outs and two strikes had a 98% probability of sealing the win.  The Rays were down 7-0 in the 8th inning, giving them a 99.6% probability of losing.  Then, then, down 7-6 in the bottom of the ninth, they send up Dan Johnson to pinch hit, who was hitting .108 this year.  Just let that resonate for a bit.  Their only hope at this point was pinch hitting with a .108 hitter.  And he takes TWO strikes.  TWO.  And then promptly hits a home run to tie it.  My brain can’t even contemplate the probability of that, but it must lie somewhere in a zenith.  Silver says all that adds up to a 278,000,000 to 1 probability of those events unfolding.

When I saw Alison this morning [who truly understands the zen of the Sox and whom I met in Fenway Park] she just looked at me and let out wonderful laugh.  She smiled and said, “Of course they lost, silly, what did you expect?”

And you know what?  Even though we just witnessed the most historic regular season meltdown in baseball history [truly - no other team in 150 years has had a 99.7% probability of making the playoffs and blown it - we just took that title from the ‘69 Cubs], as midnight neared last night and I sat glued in place for that 30 minute span of twilight zone baseball, my thumb flipping back and forth between those two games, the gods were summing up for me why baseball is so fucking great.  It ain’t over till it’s over.